Nigeria’s population could surge to 450 million by 2050 if current fertility rates continue, experts warned at a media roundtable in Abuja on Tuesday, November 19.
The event, organized by the Association for the Advancement of Family Planning (AAFP) in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, brought together journalists, policymakers, and stakeholders to discuss family planning issues.
Dr. Ejike Oji, Chairman of the AAFP Management Committee, presented the alarming projection, emphasizing the rapid population growth Nigeria is currently experiencing.
With a population estimated at 239 million, the country is adding at least four million people annually.
Oji described this growth as “geometric” and unsustainable. He further stated that without action to reduce fertility rates, Nigeria could face severe socio-economic challenges.
“If this trend continues, we could be adding six million or even 10 million people annually in the coming years,” Oji warned.
“Without reducing our fertility rate to four by 2030, Nigeria risks serious socio-economic challenges.”
The experts also discussed the need for urgent intervention to curb Nigeria’s high fertility rate, which currently stands at 4.8, down from 5.3.
Oji highlighted the importance of meeting the FP2030 targets to prevent long-term developmental setbacks. He noted that if the country does not reduce its fertility rate to four children per woman by 2030, Nigeria risks facing serious socio-economic problems.
“If we do not bring down our fertility rates, by the year 2050, we will be 450 million, based on the percentage increase every year,” Oji stated.
He stressed that the increase is “geometric,” meaning the population could grow exponentially in the coming decades.
Oji drew comparisons to other rapidly growing countries, such as India and China, emphasizing how reducing fertility rates and investing in youth populations has contributed to their economic growth.
He said, “China is the second-largest economy in the world, followed by India. They were very poor countries 50 years ago, but they turned the tide by cutting down their fertility rates and investing in their young population.
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Nigeria has that opportunity. If we miss it now, if we don’t bring our fertility rate down to four per cent, by the year 2030, we’re going to be in serious trouble.”
Dr. Martin Migombano, Managing Director of FP2030 North, West, and Central Africa Hub, echoed the concerns about Nigeria’s population growth.
He said, “Nigeria’s population may hit 450 million by 2050 because of the size of the country.” He also highlighted the country’s significant maternal mortality rate, noting that 28.5 percent of global maternal deaths occur in Nigeria.
“There is still a lot that needs to be done by our partners, religious leaders, the government, financial partners who are donors, and others,” Migombano said.
He added that the key focus should be on improving access to family planning services and commodities, particularly in rural areas. ”
How can a woman get access to family planning? How about commodities? How about the education of the population?” he asked, stressing the need for collaboration among all stakeholders.
Ifesinachi Eze, a consultant at Amref International, addressed the disruptions in family planning and reproductive health services, especially in humanitarian settings.
She stated that these disruptions leave women with unmet family planning needs, placing additional strain on already fragile health systems.
“To address these issues, USAID’s Propel Adapt project is developing a private sector engagement guide for FP/RH supply chains in humanitarian settings,” Eze noted.
“This guide, created in collaboration with FP2030, supports countries in rapidly assessing private sector capacities, fostering public-private collaborations, and strengthening FP/RH supply chains during emergencies.”
Eze emphasized the importance of collaboration between governments and the private sector to improve the effectiveness of health systems.
“Governments and the private sector need to work together to create the regulatory frameworks, financial incentives, and infrastructure that allow the health sector to thrive,” she said.
The AAFP and its partners reiterated their commitment to advancing family planning as a critical tool for ensuring a sustainable future for Nigeria.
The roundtable underscored the need for increased investment in family planning services to address the growing population and associated challenges.
